First of all it depends of pot odds
If he has 21 you will loose $2000 (you cannot think of the money you previously invested to get to this point, that is as good as gone now, its already paid out)
If he has 20 you share $6000 i.e. net profit $3000-$2000 (that you bet) = $1000
He has 19 or less you win $6000-$2000 =$4000
Second of all it depends on the player
The Straight Player
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The question is, did he initially raise? If so then its very likely he has the Ace (say 90% of the time) it is extremely likely he has at least 20 if not (so say another 10% of the time) and unlikely indeed that he kept going and stuck on a hand less than 20 (say 0%)
So 90% of the time you are going to loose $2000 and 10% of the time you are going to win $1000. No call, just fold. Which is exactly what we would expect.
Did he initially call? If so the reverse is true. 90% of the time you will win $1000 and only 10% of the time will you loose $2000. Its a good call.
The aggressive player
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Did he initially raise? If so:
80% - 20
20% - 21
So 80% of the time you will make $1000 and 20% of the time you will loose $2000. Harder to see just by looking at it so 80% of 1000 minus 20% of 2000 will give us our net profit i.e. $400. Its a good call.
Did he just call? Straight away you can see the majority of the time he has 19 or less. Not only is it worth calling its probably worth raising.
The cunning player
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More simple this time, he just called. 80% of the time he has 20 and 20% of the time he has 21, similar to the aggressive players raise senario. So it is a good call again, but this scenario has much more room for judgement. Does he always try to take the pot? Does he do it rarely?
And of course for the super aggressive players only 8% of the time will they have 21 (you loose $2000), 31% of the time you will make $1000 and a staggering 60% of the time you will make $4000. A raise would be well worth considering in these circumstances.
| Player Type | Did he Call? | Did he Raise? |
| The Straight Player | Call up ro 5x the pot | Fold or Check |
| The Aggressive Player | Call or Raise | Call up to 2.5x the pot |
| The Cunning Player | Call up to 2.5x the pot | No |
| The Super-Aggressive | No | Raise or Call |
Of course this is making the assumptiont that
1. Your opponent is playing as the tables predict
2. Your opponent isnt reading you
However I still find this method an excellent way of playing blackjack poker. Of course its not wise to follow this always, and in most cases your judgement is the deciding factor. For example if a player seems to be bullying you and you are short stacked in a tournament game I personally would call a larger bet since the odds of me being taken out are similar to that of the blinds getting me anyway. There are plenty other examples too. In general however the above table should be something you on average are coming close to.
Taking player notes is such a powerful technique that even if you arent using the mathematics above it should still give you a significant edge against your opponents.
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